Biodiesel market seen topping $82B by 2030 as Western Europe, US lead growth

The Business Research Company says the global biodiesel market will exceed $82 billion by 2030, driven by blending mandates, low-carbon fuel demand and capacity expansions in renewable fuels. Western Europe is set to be the largest regional market, while the U.S. remains the biggest national market.

Why it matters: - Biodiesel is moving from a niche renewable fuel into a larger part of the energy mix as regulators push lower-carbon transport and industry fuels. - The market's growth reflects rising demand for drop-in fuels that can cut emissions without major infrastructure changes. - The report points to a bigger role for biodiesel in transportation, aviation and industrial decarbonization.

What happened: - The Business Research Company released a Global Market Report 2026 on the biodiesel market, with forecasts running to 2035. - The report projects the biodiesel market will exceed $82 billion by 2030. - The report says Western Europe will be the largest regional biodiesel market in 2030 at $26 billion. - The report says the U.S. will be the largest country market in 2030 at $14 billion. - The report gives access to a free sample of the biodiesel market report through More information. - The report also links to the full biodiesel market report through the full report.

The details: - Biodiesel is forecast to account for about 98% of the Other Refined Petroleum Products category by 2030. - Biodiesel is expected to represent close to 1% of the overall oil and gas market value in 2030. - Western Europe is projected to grow from $20 billion in 2025 to $26 billion in 2030, a 5% CAGR. - The U.S. market is projected to grow from $10 billion in 2025 to $14 billion in 2030, a 6% CAGR. - Vegetable oils and animal fats are the main feedstock categories in the market. - Vegetable oils are expected to hold 67% of market share, or $54 billion, in 2030. - The production process segment includes alcohol transesterification and hydro-heating. - End-use applications include fuel, power generation and agriculture. - The market is projected to grow at a 6% CAGR through 2030. - The report says the top 10 players held about 23% of revenue in 2025, indicating a moderately fragmented market. - Neste Corporation held the largest global market share in 2025 at 11%. - Major companies listed in the market include Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill, Chevron, Louis Dreyfus Company, Wilmar, Aemetis, FutureFuel, Verbio and others. - The report lists raw material suppliers, wholesalers, distributors and end users across aviation, shipping, retail, trucking, agriculture and manufacturing.

Between the lines: - The biggest growth driver is the move from lower blends such as B5 toward higher blends such as B20 in major markets including the U.S., Brazil, Indonesia and the European Union. - Those mandates are creating more predictable demand and are also supporting co-products such as glycerin. - Hard-to-abate sectors including mining, marine and rail are using biodiesel as a lower-carbon drop-in fuel. - Oil majors are expanding hydrotreated vegetable oil and sustainable aviation fuel capacity, which should increase renewable fuel supply and improve economies of scale. - The report's competitive map suggests scale, feedstock access and regulatory compliance remain the main barriers to entry. - Bayer introduced NewGold seed in February 2026 to produce low-carbon oilseed varieties such as camelina and winter canola for biodiesel feedstocks.

What's next: - The report expects vegetable oils and animal fats to add more than $21 billion to the market by 2030. - Vegetable oils are projected to grow by $14 billion between 2025 and 2030, while animal fats are projected to grow by $7 billion. - Companies are expected to keep investing in second-generation biodiesel technologies, feedstock processing and higher conversion efficiencies. - Partnerships, capacity expansions and supply-chain integration are likely to remain central as demand for low-carbon fuels rises. - The report says future growth will also come from wider certification schemes, more biorefineries and better waste-derived feedstock use.

The bottom line: - Biodiesel is positioned for steady expansion through 2030, with policy support, industrial demand and renewable fuel investments doing most of the work.